The NFL bye week is a factor many recreational gamers don’t pay enough awareness of. When you consider a novice sports bettor, and also you spot the kind of betting line which has you quickly heading to Google News and your favorite sports stat site to ascertain if a player is injured, don’t forget to also notice if this team’s opponent is originating off a bye. For people advanced sports bettors struggling with the bye week, I’ll cover some more impressive range research and insights in regards to the bye on this page. Before getting to this, I’ll address some general points for everyone unclear what a bye week is, or on what weeks teams have byes.
When you probably know, sbo consists of each team playing 16 games. Back 1990, the league changed to your 17 week season as a way to profit more from television advertising. This left each team with a single week off at some stage in the season called a bye week. The bye week had been random spanning on the entire season, nevertheless in 2004 to make a more uniform agenda for the playoff race, the format was changed. How it works now could be bye weeks always fall between weeks 4 and 10. Like a sports bettor, you’ll must pay extra attention during weeks 5-11 for teams coming off a bye, since they have the benefit of extra time to rest, improve your health, practice and prepare.
Basically we won’t include this in our analysis, another area recreational bettors need to concentrate on is Thursday games. Starting week 10 of the NFL season there is a single Thursday night game, and so on Thanksgiving there are two additional Thursday day games. This means that on Thursday, teams are frequently playing on short rest, which is often the case both for teams; so it is not something to worry about. Where it becomes an issue is definitely the following week. Here, teams are coming off added rest and may achieve a similar advantage to the main one they have got from a bye week. Be sure when creating bets on the NFL to cover attention both to teams coming away from the bye, and also to teams coming off a Thursday game.
Considering that this isn’t a write-up about statistical handicapping models, a topic which 95% of readers might find too advanced, I won’t go into it in much more detail than to produce a single statement and after that support it. That statement: the better a team is, the better they take advantage of the bye week. This is simply not a theory, but something well quantified via statistical analysis how the best odds makers know about. To provide a small clue, the modifier for teams coming off a bye is actually a multiplier according to power rankings. All teams gain benefit from the bye week, but just how much they benefit is proportional to how good of the team these are.
If the above statement is at all confusing, don’t sweat it. I’ll share basic stats about how well teams coming from the bye week have fared that can help you know the lines just a little better.
On the four most recent seasons (2007-2010), in games where only one team is arriving off of the bye, the team coming away from the bye carries a record of 65-54-1 straight up, and 61-44-5 from the spread.
Now, if you’re contemplating betting teams coming from the bye because the past 4 years they’ve covered 58.1% of the time, read my article around the current betting market. A system including that might been employed by in 2006; but, more likely than not, this trend won’t continue. The reason being today NFL betting line is a lot more efficient, along with the market will almost certainly correct itself.
The typical ATS info is nice, however it doesn’t tell us much unless we break it down further. After the process, a more interesting trend appears. Utilizing the same 110 game sample, teams coming away from the bye week which are favored possess a record of 48-12 straight up and 36-20-4 ATS, while underdogs coming off of the bye use a record of 17-32-1 straight up and 25-24-1 ATS.
The sample size on road favorites is rather small, but 15-1-2 against the spread is massively impressive, nonetheless. To discuss a remote stat out of a write-up I wrote a few dexmpky72 back, from 1990 to 2008 (more than a 150 game sample size), road favored teams coming off a bye week covered the spread nearly 70% of the time.
To return to and have better 4 year numbers for those favorites coming away from the bye, you can find 9 games missing from your 110 sample size I used. The reason being 9 times since 2007 there have been games where both teams were coming off of the bye. (32×4=128), I got the 110 sample size because 18 from the byes were not relevant to opening discussion.
The information here strongly supports that good teams benefit from the bye more than the market is giving them credit for. I believe that that because only good teams are favored on the streets within the NFL. Using just road favorites is a bit quirky, however, and a few might contemplate it “data mining”, even though this trend is well founded when dating back to much further than 2007. If we’re planning to really check out this comprehensive, though, we have to look at subsets of all favorites disregarding home and away, as that’s included in the spread.